The Fresh Start Effect: Why You're Compelled to Make New Year’s Resolutions

If you feel compelled to make a New Year resolution, there's some science behind that. At the beginning of last year, I wrote about the Fresh Start Effect, which Dan Pink wrote about in his excellent book When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing. Dan referenced research that demonstrated how using a significant date as a temporal landmark to start something new was helpful in our navigation of time.

You can read my whole piece here, which includes a brief summary of the differences between social and personal landmarks and offers some basic tips on sticking with it. Remember to check out Dan's book, too; I read it in 2022 and still reference it regularly.

It's worth noting that most resolutions, even with the best intentions, do not stick. That's largely down to a misunderstanding of the power of habits and an inability to change those negative soundtracks that get stuck in our heads. Some further reading offers helpful insights to making successful resolutions beyond just stating a goal to your fellow revelers over champagne while watching the Death Star blow up.

Fear-Setting with Tim Ferriss: How to Define Your Fears Instead of Your Goals

Around this time last year, I found a TED talk by the author and podcaster Tim Ferriss on fear-setting. I've done the process a few times, including over the last few weeks, to decide on a career opportunity.

Fear-setting, inspired by the Stoic concept of premeditatio malorum (Latin for the pre-meditation of evils), is an exercise to overcome paralysis by visualizing the worst-case scenarios that might happen.

Let's walk through it:

Page 1: What If I…

You start the process with the define column, listing the worst things that could happen. Tim recommends 10 or 20 scenarios at most.

The prevent column is where you review the actions you can take to decrease those above worst possible outcomes from happening, even if only by a small measure.

Finally, you consider how to repair. If the worst happens, who can help you, and how can you fix it. As mentioned in the video, a helpful thing to recall is that someone less driven than you has probably dealt with a similar situation and gotten through it at some point in history. Context can be the best equalizer for an overactive brain.

Page 2: What might be the benefits of an attempt or partial success?

This helps you figure out how taking action can help you move the needle and develop or grow in the ways you want.

Page 3: The Cost of Inaction

The final piece looks deeply at the cost of inaction, which is a novel but effective way to gain motivation and one that we rarely give enough attention to. We often assume things will get better, an idea that Tim refers to as optimistic denial.

The fiction may be that If we stay at the same job, it's bound to get better and pay us more without us doing anything to make the change happen.

We want to believe it to be true. It usually isn't. Before committing or saying no to a new opportunity, here's your chance to fully realize that.

The question asked here is simply If I avoid doing this action, what does my life look like in 6 months, 12 months, and three years? You are trying to avoid what Tim calls the atrocious cost of the status quo.

Meet a Real Life Stoic

Stick around for the last few minutes of the talk, where Tim introduces Jerzy Gregorek. Jerzy is a remarkable man who was part of the solidarity movement in Poland and was forced to flee to the United States. Now living a comfortable life in California, Tim asked him about Stoicism. Jerzy sent a lengthy text about how he uses Stoicism to help make his most difficult decisions. He also shared this thought:

“Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life.” - Jerzy Gregorek

About that Job

I decided not to take it. This process helped me lay out the benefits and costs. I would work with some great people, help shape and influence the culture, and build a solid pathway to more senior positions, but the commute was too far. I've done it before, and spending hours in the car covering many miles every day doesn't work for me now.

I had to make a choice to say no to something I wanted to do and would have been great at. It was not easy.

Jerzy and Tim are on to something here. Try this process the the next time you have an important decision to make.